Weekly Market Updates

Jun 19 2019

By Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group

Jun 13 2019

By Auro WM

Jun 13 2019

By Auro WM

Jun 10 2019

By Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group

Jun 03 2019

By Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group

The “inconvenient truth” of equity market pullbacks is that investors tend to want them in order to invest at more favorable prices, but when they actually occur, investors get nervous, question their conviction and postpone their purchases. As we have mentioned in recent Weekly Headings, we had grown more cautious on the equity market as the S&P 500 matched our year-end target of 2946 on April 30. We believed the S&P 500 had gotten ahead of itself and suggested that the combination of investor complacency and weak seasonality would likely lead to a modest pullback. As a result, we had targeted the 2800 (5% upside) and 2700 (~10% upside) levels for the S&P 500 as potential buying opportunities. As we wrote last week, despite the vacation and summer fun between the Memorial Day and Labor Day holidays, investors need to remain engaged and patient with the market as a pullback would likely provide an “inconvenient opportunity.” Some of the reasons we believe weakness should be bought include:

May 21 2019

By Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group

Despite the ongoing ratcheting up of tariffs between the U.S. and China, we remain in a negotiating window before those tariffs actually take effect. Assuming the approximate three-week transit time between goods leaving China (via ships) and arriving in the U.S., and China’s stated June 1 implementation of tariffs on $60 billion worth of U.S. imports, the clock is ticking as these increases become unavoidable around June 1. Outside of the long-run structural benefits of establishing a fair trade agreement between the two largest economies in the world, there are two other short-term dynamics that could accelerate the progress of an eventual deal: the stock market and the economy.

May 13 2019

By Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group

As the Friday early morning deadline (12:01 AM EST) expired, tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese imports have technically gone into effect. However, as we go to press, negotiations are ongoing with the hope that a compromise can be brokered. However, rather than the “art of the deal” playing out, we are witnessing the “art of uncertainty.” The situation has grown more complex this week following President Trump’s Sunday tweet that not only threatened to raise tariffs from the existing 10% to 25% on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods but raised the stakes by potentially adding tariffs to an additional $325 billion dollars of Chinese imports at 25%. In total, that amounts to the potential of $575 billion in Chinese imports being taxed at 25% (~$144 billion or 0.7% of U.S. GDP). China’s threat to retaliate immediately with countermeasures (not yet specified) further clouds the situation. Admittedly, we have no additional insights other than what we have shared previously into what the endgame of these complex negotiations will be, however, we borrow a few points from “The Art of the Deal” to gain some additional insights:

May 07 2019

By Larry Adam, Chief Investment Officer, Private Client Group

Equities remain near all-time highs, as the S&P 500 closed at a record high two times this week and is now up 17.1% year-to-date (YTD), the best start to a year on a price return basis since 1987. Supporting factors for the equity market have been the reluctance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue on the path of policy normalization (evidenced by the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged at the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting), rising optimism for a U.S./China trade deal (which is reported to take place as early as next week), still solid domestic fundamentals (highlighted by elevated productivity growth and the April employment report this morning that showed that the U.S. economy added 263k jobs in April) and a strong 1Q19 earnings season. With ~75% of S&P 500 companies having reported, below are some of the key takeaways thus far from the 1Q19 earnings season:

Apr 29 2019

By Auro WM

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